Litecoin is the most well known alternative cryptocurrency. I remember first buying litecoins when they were 80 cents and selling them for $4.60, all in about 2 weeks. It was really my first wildly successful experience day trading on BTC-e back when we had the emojis, yelling at the chart to “ARIZE CHIKUN ARIZE!”, which is a quote from an Aqua Teen Hunger Force episode. …still being quoted today(but it was exponentially more entertaining with the angry emoji face BTC-e used to have).
But since then Litecoin had gone out of focus for me. But recently it caught my attention for a day or two, as the massive volume surpassed that of even Bitcoin, according to some because of a Chinese ponzi scheme. But for those who are obsessed about crypto, they know that we have just 40 days and 40 nights before Litecoin’s block reward halves. Meaning miners will get 25 litecoins per block rather than 50, meaning the supply will be cut in half.
I am not quick to jump into a sinking ship but I am cautiously watching to try and catch the bottom of the crash.
First a disclaimer, I offer no financial advice nor do I offer forecasts, pretty much just realize that if something I say here influences your choices in investing, I must give a clear warning that it is entirely possible for you to get trapped in bad short selling from the wildly volatile Litecoin market and basically yeah, you can lose a lot of money that way. I offer no advice because I will not try and persuade others to take high risks. But with the halving upon us, i thought it would be a decent topic to discuss. Cuz I really think Litecoins going to see a pretty marvelous advance in the coming 6 months. But please don’t hold me responsible if it explodes.
While hesitant to offer investment advice in such an unforgiving marketplace, maybe I will ask for advice from readers, and run it past you what I am planning on doing with my investments and why.
The halving, what is it?
Here is an example, after 4 years, Bitcoin made remarkable gains from less than 6 cents to about 13 dollars. Right around the beginning of December, Bitcoin reached the ripe old age of 4 years old, and roughly, every 4 years, Bitcoin’s block reward gets cut in half. Like I said, this means there are fewer bitcoins being rewarded to miners, which are consistently supplying the exchanges with coin. With a halving, there are half as many coins being dumped by miners into the marketplace. When this happens scarcity is basically contrived. And with scarcity, prices go up. Way up.
Lets take a look at what happened to Bitcoin when it had its reward halving in 2012.
Look closely at those numbers. Within a month Bitcoin was 10x what it was at halving, and within a year from its halving it was up 100x. And realize this halving event is coming for Litecoin in about 40 days.
Now I have been told this-and-that by naysayers saying Litecoin will see nothing like that, its price will already be set before halving, etc. But I’m pretty sure anytime anyone pretends to know anything about markets it’s a red flag they don’t know squat. How many times did Bitcoin make headlines, “Bitcoin officially dead”, lmao.
And how often do we hear this sentiment when we know that probably Bitcoin will continue being a rebellious little currency like it’s always been…. so rather than hearing ungrounded prediction on any financial future, I like to look at the numbers and the historical charts for myself, listening to people preaching as if they were an authority on markets hits my nerves. Maybe they are right and Litecoin does nothing, but I have a suspicion the hype will occur and the charts will be painted green for Litecoin following the halving.
I intend not to convince anyone to invest in Litecoin, just to raise awareness on the halving and bring up some data. My hesitance is because there has been times where I invested a few thousand dollars in ideas I thought were sound, and lost a good chunk because well, my timing was off.
I am eying Litecoin’s price now, and this is what i see(see graphic below).
I think we are exiting the last phase of the four bubble phases and, at least for myself, it seems like a safe time to buy in. I am saving a few thousand dollars for if the price does fall to 0.006 or even 0.008, if it does I’m buying in real quick and will sit and wait patiently like a good boy. And this is a long term thing for me, as its apparent Litecoin has a pulse, be it yearly or whatever, I decided even if I have to wait a year on this investment to see returns, I’m down.
Also, when you’re throwing around large amounts of money, it’s especially easy to get caught up in bad deals because you are moving way more volume than most people on the market so your trading margins are much wider, so just be careful, and be patient and try not to buy at the top of a steep increase, only to eat losses in a crash.
So what I’ve learned is try to be patient and wait for a good deal. It could be days or weeks. Right now the market could dip to .009 or even 0.006 but I am confident it’s going to rise as the halving comes and vacuums away the abundance of new coins and creates the scarcity, halving block rewards is a legitimate grounds for a media attention as well, so if you do invest and see it’s gone to 0.006, I wouldn’t sell(try not to sell at the bottom of a trough), just wait. The worst feeling is selling on a dip and coming back and it has rebounded, rising substantially.
So yeah we’ll see how it goes in the next 38 days, it just might be the perfect time to stock up on a bit of this coin. Although be aware(beware) it may still correct to pre-bubble levels(and stay there for a few months even, before the price rises), so use your best judgement and I wish you all good luck.